A Curiosity: Volatility and Returns

A strange regularity in returns has been documented: Stocks with low return volatility yield higher returns than those with high volatility. See the Dimson et. al. UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook in Your Library.

If return volatility indicates risk, this is curious finding. The reason for the phenomenon is not well understood. Return volatility is not the systematic risk that is priced in asset pricing theory so the pattern could only be explained by that theory if return volatility is negatively correlated with systematic risk (unlikely). But it does prompt the question for the investor: A low volatility stock a refuge from risk? The fundamental investor replies that that proposition must be tested against the fundamentals. Safe equities introduced in chapter 8 as an alternative to low volatility stocks are based on fundamental information.

Of course, the low volatility finding might be an exhibit for market mispricing. That, too, would have to be validated with fundamental analysis.

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