Economists have long been skeptical about statistics published by the Chinese government. So, with the ailing Chinese economy, it came somewhat of a surprise that the government announced that GDP growth in 2024 met its 5% target.
That was partly explained by higher export growth. However, in the last quarter of 2024, Chinese firms were fast tracking their shipments to the U.S. to avoid the anticipated high tariffs on Chinese imports that the expected next U.S. president, Donald Trump was promising for 2025. That is channel stuffing. Look for a decrease in Chinese income from exports in 2025 as the inventory buildup from the channel studying reduces the demand for Chinese goods (as well as from lower exports because of the tariffs). That will have a negative effect on Chinese GDP growth for 2025, forecast to be 5% once more.